Would an AI be capable of constructing a non-brute, ultraweak proof of chess for this board state by 2030?

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Would an AI be able to construct an ultra-weak proof for the given chess board state, that does not rely on brute-force analysis by 2030. The proof can contain multiple conditions but should not outline every move to conclude the solution.

Since the line for how many conditions is too much is subjective, I'll say that I'd be satisfied if the compressed size of the proof is < 7kb (excluding definitions+axioms)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solved_game

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solving_chess

Bonus: 50k bounty to anyone who can manually construct a proof, its still unclear to me what would be a reasonable size for such a problem.

Update 2025-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For the chess board state relevant to this market, it is confirmed that castling by either side is allowed.

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anyone who can manually construct a proof

Does this include using a computer to investigate possible manually-verifiable criteria, or does it have to be constructed by paper-and-pen? If someone comes up with a purported proof, do you have a plan for determining if a computer assisted in creating it or not?

@BoltonBailey I don't care about the origin or manner of the proof. Only that it is sound

Does this market resolve based on whether such a proof exists at close time? Will you take any actions to bring about this proof?

@marvingardens yes, and I will possibly attempt if I have free time on my hands, or if it become trivial to get an AI to solve

sold Ṁ250 NO

How rigorous does a proof need to be to be eligible for your 50k bounty? I want to try my hand at it, but I'm not great at very rigorous mathematical proofs. Also, can either side castle? It's not clear given the starting position