Will we get "chess AGI" by 2030?
5
53
Ṁ76Ṁ180
2030
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I call "chess AGI" to an AI system that is superhuman in all chess-related tasks.
Computer are much better than human in playing chess. However, there are many examples for chess problem that humans can solve given some time, but computer can't handle. For example see the problems at https://chess.stackexchange.com/questions/23837/solvable-studies-that-computers-fail-to-crack
Resolution criteria:
Resolved to YES when a computer software is shown to be able to solve all of the chess problems (mate in n and start and win/draw) that an expert problem solver can reasonably solve within a day.
Resolved to NO at 1.1.2030 if no such software was shown to exist.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will AI be able to generate correct images of a chess game in 2024?
46% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?
36% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?
65% chance
Will chess be solved by 2100?
27% chance
Will an AI by OpenAI beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?
47% chance
Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?
33% chance
Will an LLM (a GPT-like text AI) defeat the World Champion at Chess before 2035?
47% chance
Will chess be solved by 2040?
10% chance
Who will be a world chess champion before 2050?