What will Trump do on Day 1 of being President?
726
9.9kṀ390k
resolved Apr 28
Resolved
YES
Pardon at least 1 J6 participant
Resolved
YES
End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants through executive action
Resolved
YES
Declare a national emergency
Resolved
YES
Post on Twitter/X
Resolved
YES
Publicly say/write “you’re fired”
Resolved
YES
Pardon at least one person
Resolved
YES
Something based (I'm judge)
Resolved
YES
Make male and female the only federally recognized genders
Resolved
YES
Sign at least two executive orders
Resolved
YES
Sign at least five executive orders
Resolved
YES
Enact any executive order primarily affecting the transgender population
Resolved
YES
Mention Jimmy Carter
Resolved
YES
Sign ≥10 executive orders
Resolved
YES
Pardon someone who has not been convinced of any crime
Resolved
YES
Make a tweet/truth that includes at least two words in ALL CAPS (no acronyms)
Resolved
YES
Pray
Resolved
YES
Appear publicly with Elon Musk
Resolved
YES
Pardon someone named Jim/James
Resolved
YES
Mention any of the 80,000 Hours most pressing world problems
Resolved
YES
Ride together in the same limosine with Joe Biden

  • Update 2025-16-01 (PST): • Day One is defined as 24 hours after being sworn in as President. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-16-01 (PST): - If an action occurs prior to Trump taking office that makes it impossible to resolve yes, the market will resolve as N/A. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution after one week: If no evidence of an action that will likely not be reported such as "eating a hamburger" or "pooping his pants" is provided within one week after being sworn in, the market will resolve as No.

    • Evidence Submission: If you have evidence of such actions, please post it in the comments.

  • Update 2025-01-28 (PST): - Re-resolution: The market will not be re-resolved after the initial one-week resolution. This allows participants to profit from the uncertainty. (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:

    • A significant gaffe is defined as a "signal" that is magnificent enough to warrant media notation.

    • This definition was chosen to minimize subjectivity by relying on media coverage.

    • Alternative definitions, such as "caused media outrage," were considered but not adopted.

  • Update 2025-01-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on j6 Pardon Resolution

    • The j6 pardon is interpreted to cover individuals who are convicted as well as those facing charges or ongoing prosecutions.

    • If evidence shows that an individual was still in trial at the time of Trump's Day 1 action, the market should resolve as YES.

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