The Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge asks the question: What is the minimum number of A presses required to beat Super Mario 64 with 100% completion?
For more info, read here: A Button Challenge - Ukikipedia
There are currently 15 remaining A presses for 100% completion. The source for this is actually somewhat tribal; the most recent reliable reference to this fact is at this timestamp of a video by Bismuth: https://youtu.be/guf4ZkekhGs
This market resolves YES if on January 1, 2024, at 12am, the consensus among Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge experts is that exactly 15 A presses are currently required for 100% completion. Otherwise it resolves NO (which will occur only if the number is 14 or fewer.)
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Now that this video has released, the current A press count is 14: TTC Stomp on the Thwomp 0xA - YouTube
I actually created these markets knowing about this result. I made a mistake! I thought 15 was the current A press count, not 14.
I will not resolve this market because it is still technically possible that the expert consensus is currently wrong and will change by Jan 1, 2024.
The market resolves according to expert consensus on Jan 1, 2024, or if a "proof" (a series of gameplay inputs resulting in game completion) is released before then. (Currently no such proof exists; instead, this challenge is composed of individual proofs that do not technically add up to a full proof.)
This market should be as close to 0% as possible, IMO.
@Yev The markets will all resolve N/A if there is no consensus. They will resolve NO if the consensus A press count is 16 or higher on January 1, 2024; this requires the current consensus to be wrong, which IMO is highly unlikely due to the vast amount of evidence and planning that has gone into this subject.
