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The Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge asks the question: What is the minimum number of A presses required to beat Super Mario 64 with 100% completion?
For more info, read here: A Button Challenge - Ukikipedia
There are currently 15 remaining A presses for 100% completion. The source for this is actually somewhat tribal; the most recent reliable reference to this fact is at this timestamp of a video by Bismuth: https://youtu.be/guf4ZkekhGs
This market resolves YES if on January 1, 2024, at 12am, the consensus among Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge experts is that exactly 13 A presses are currently required for 100% completion. Otherwise it resolves NO.
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@AngolaMaldives Update for the curious: As of 3 months ago the count is 13, so this will pay out as long as they don't find any more