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Will a human complete a Perfect Run of Super Mario Bros like @summoningsalt predicts by EOY 2030
32
Ṁ2kṀ4.8k
2031
89%
chance

Recently humans have been closing the time gap between the world record Super Mario Bros speedrun, and the Tool Assisted Speedrun (TAS) theoretical optimal time for the game. It is possible that a human will complete a full perfect run of the game in the future, and tie the TAS time.

Link: https://twitter.com/summoningsalt/status/1755314279715398099

  • Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A run using input swapping (a technique recently banned from competitive speedrunning) will not count for resolution.

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@strutheo what happens if the only such run is by Niftski using input swapping, which was recently banned?

@JimHays wont count

@strutheo (Implicit context being that the ban is still in effect when the run occurs)

The only way this doesn't happen is if the community essentially dies. With regular events like PACE encouraging lots of people to speedrun the game, and with Youtubers like Kosmic promoting it, it's bound to happen.

Not going to bet rn but imo this will 100% happen. SMB runners are a different breed trust me.

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