Will the A press count for Super Mario 64's A Button Challenge be less than or equal to 12 on January 1, 2024?

Question

The Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge asks the question: What is the minimum number of A presses required to beat Super Mario 64 with 100% completion?

For more info, read here: A Button Challenge - Ukikipedia

There are currently 15 remaining A presses for 100% completion. The source for this is actually somewhat tribal; the most recent reliable reference to this fact is at this timestamp of a video by Bismuth: https://youtu.be/guf4ZkekhGs

This market resolves YES if on January 1, 2024, at 12am, the consensus among Super Mario 64 A Button Challenge experts is that 12 or fewer A presses are currently required for 100% completion. Otherwise it resolves NO.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Jan 1, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.