Will any corporate quantum computing team report 2 or more simultaneous 2-qubit gates with >= 99.9% fidelity by 2025? | Manifold

Will any corporate quantum computing team report 2 or more simultaneous 2-qubit gates with >= 99.9% fidelity by 2025?

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Will be considering average fidelity.

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Quantinuum claims a 99.914% 2Q gate

https://www.quantinuum.com/news/quantinuum-extends-its-significant-lead-in-quantum-computing-achieving-historic-milestones-for-hardware-fidelity-and-quantum-volume

predicts YES

https://www.quantinuum.com/news/quantinuum-h-series-quantum-computer-accelerates-through-3-more-performance-records-for-quantum-volume-217-218-and-219

Quantinuum H-Series quantum computer accelerates through 3 more performance records for quantum volume: 217, 218, and 219

We like being the quantum company that quietly over-delivers, even on big goals

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+9% 1d38% chance

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Science questions

Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?

Quantum Computing questions

Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?

An error-correcting quantum computer will be commercially available by 2025.

Related questions

Will IBM produce a functional 100,000 qubit quantum-centric computing system by 2033?

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2039?

[Metaculus] Will we be able to tolerate a 5% physical error rate in quantum computing by 2032?

Will quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?

Will the first quantum computer to factor two 2048-bit RSA moduli do so in under a minute?

Will AGI, net positive nuclear fusion, and practical quantum computers be realized by the end of 2034?

Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer by 2025?

Will a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?

How many research groups will have claimed to have achieved a "quantum advantage" on quantum computers by end 2024?

Will there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?