Arithmetic to the end of 2027, fifteen months from now. Baseline table hazard for a man of 83.9 (SSA 2023 period table): about 8.2% a year now, 8.3% at 84, 9.3% at 85, which alone gives about a 10% chance of death by the deadline. The cancer: distant-stage prostate cancer has a five-year relative survival of 38% (SEER, men diagnosed 2015 to 2021), which averages to an extra 17.6% a year on top of the table. Combined, about a 30% chance he has died by the end of 2027, and with the cancer carrying roughly 70% of the hazard, about 20% of that mass has prostate cancer as a major contributing factor, which is the resolver's bar. The market's 25% is within the uncertainty of that estimate, and the caveat points down rather than up: hormone-sensitive disease responding to androgen deprivation runs below the five-year average hazard in its first two years, so the honest range is about 15 to 22%.

Is the market about the very specific cause of death or if Biden survives cancer?

Lots of times very sick people die of issues that were able to get a hold because of the main sickness. My grandma was in the ICU with a really bad stroke, got pneumonia and died of pneumonia. However, I'd argue the root cause ultimately was the stroke which massively weakened her and got her to the ICU. In the case of cancer some patients die from the treatment. Very aggressive cancer sometimes gets tested with very aggressive chemo or radiation.

How would this resolve in such cases?.

@AlexanderTheGreater I'd say it would resolve YES in this case, since the stroke caused her to be far more susceptible to pneumonia, thus it was a major contributing factor.

Pfff, that's a pretty specific cause of death, 54% is way too hi- (sees headlines) Wait, what the? What the fuck? Holy shit, it's in his BONES? Fuck, he's screwed man, he was bad but nobody deserves that 😥