Hazard split, for a market that resolves on cause. Baseline: SSA's 2023 period table gives a man of 83.9 about 8.2% a year, rising to 9.3% at 85 and 10.3% at 86. Cancer: SEER's distant-stage five-year relative survival for prostate cancer is 38% (men diagnosed 2015 to 2021), which averages out to an extra 17.6% a year, so about 70% of his total hazard in the first years is the cancer. On that split the chance he has died by 20 January 2029 is about 48%, and roughly two thirds of those deaths would have the cancer as a major factor. Over his whole remaining life the cancer's share falls as the table hazard rises with age and as the treatment response plays out, so a lifetime figure of 60 to 70% fits the data; 73% is a little high but defensible, because the resolver counts cancer as a major contributing factor rather than the sole cause. Hormone-sensitive disease on androgen deprivation sits below the five-year average hazard early on, which argues for later rather than never.

He Might Get Hit By A Bus

@TiredCliche He is a former president, I don't think the secret service would let anything like that happen.

How exactly will you resolve this? Because people with slow diseases often experience other problems, like kidney failure, cardiac arrest etc.

@Ersagun borrowing a definition from a similar market: If prostate cancer is a major contributing factor to death, the market resolves YES. This includes cases where prostate cancer or its treatment causes increased susceptibility to another condition that is the immediate cause of death.