Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office. If he is elected to a second term, he would start it at 82. There have been a number of rumors and specualtions about his health, with many conservative pundits claiming he is suffering from dementia. On the other hand, routine medical check-ups describe him as "vigorous":
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Wait a second, should this have been an independent market? In a dependent (aka linked) MC market, you can only resolve in ways such that all options add up to 100%. That's fine for "before 2030" and "not by 2030", but if "before 2027" is true, how will "before 2030" resolve?
One possible solution would be to rename as follows:
"Before 2026" -> "in 2025"
"Before 2027" -> "in 2026"
"Before 2030" -> "2027-2029"
@MaxGhenis I'd like Manifolders to stop calling for market close when it is salvageable.
@creator It would be nice to have options labelled more clearly.
Oh this shouldn't be linked MC! If he died today we would want to resolve several to yes.
Think this whole market should be NAed and a new unlinked one set up @mods
Aside from his mental decline, Biden’s physical health appears to be above average for that of a 81 year old American man (whose life expectancy would be 86 or 87).
He supposedly does not drink or smoke and exercises multiple times a week
No cancer since 2023
No heart disease (excluding A-fib)
The last 3 presidents to die were all in their mid-90s and Jimmy Carter is still living at 99.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1
If I'm reading this table correctly, an 82 y/o male has a 7.9691% chance of dying before their 83rd birthday, and a term life expectancy of 6.77 years, so death date ~July 2030ish.