Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office. If he is elected to a second term, he would start it at 82. There have been a number of rumors and specualtions about his health, with many conservative pundits claiming he is suffering from dementia. On the other hand, routine medical check-ups describe him as "vigorous":
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Wait a second, should this have been an independent market? In a dependent (aka linked) MC market, you can only resolve in ways such that all options add up to 100%. That's fine for "before 2030" and "not by 2030", but if "before 2027" is true, how will "before 2030" resolve?
One possible solution would be to rename as follows:
"Before 2026" -> "in 2025"
"Before 2027" -> "in 2026"
"Before 2030" -> "2027-2029"
Oh this shouldn't be linked MC! If he died today we would want to resolve several to yes.
Think this whole market should be NAed and a new unlinked one set up @mods
Aside from his mental decline, Biden’s physical health appears to be above average for that of a 81 year old American man (whose life expectancy would be 86 or 87).
He supposedly does not drink or smoke and exercises multiple times a week
No cancer since 2023
No heart disease (excluding A-fib)
The last 3 presidents to die were all in their mid-90s and Jimmy Carter is still living at 99.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1
If I'm reading this table correctly, an 82 y/o male has a 7.9691% chance of dying before their 83rd birthday, and a term life expectancy of 6.77 years, so death date ~July 2030ish.