Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Joe Biden dies at any point during 2026 (January 1 - December 31, 2026). Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death. This market resolves NO if Biden survives through December 31, 2026.

Background

As of January 4, 2026, Joe Biden is 83 years old, having been born on November 20, 1942. Biden left the Oval Office on January 20, 2025. In May, Biden's postpresidential office announced that he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer and that it had spread to his bone. At the time of the initial announcement, his office said the cancer was given a Gleason score of 9 — on a scale of 6 to 10 — meaning it is among the most aggressive forms and more likely to spread quickly. The radiation treatment is expected to span five weeks and marks a new point in his care.

Considerations

When known health status information is entered into a predictive algorithm, President Biden's life expectancy is 95 years. However, this calculation predates his Stage 4 prostate cancer diagnosis. Over the past several weeks Biden has, at times, seemed more fatigued, something friends attributed to the strain of cancer he is managing and its treatment.

This description was generated by AI.