Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Joe Biden dies at any point during 2026 (January 1 - December 31, 2026). Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death. This market resolves NO if Biden survives through December 31, 2026.
Background
As of January 4, 2026, Joe Biden is 83 years old, having been born on November 20, 1942. Biden left the Oval Office on January 20, 2025. In May, Biden's postpresidential office announced that he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer and that it had spread to his bone. At the time of the initial announcement, his office said the cancer was given a Gleason score of 9 — on a scale of 6 to 10 — meaning it is among the most aggressive forms and more likely to spread quickly. The radiation treatment is expected to span five weeks and marks a new point in his care.
Considerations
When known health status information is entered into a predictive algorithm, President Biden's life expectancy is 95 years. However, this calculation predates his Stage 4 prostate cancer diagnosis. Over the past several weeks Biden has, at times, seemed more fatigued, something friends attributed to the strain of cancer he is managing and its treatment.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000Table arithmetic for the quarter of 2026 that is left. Biden is 83.9. SSA's 2023 period life table gives a man of that age about an 8.2% chance of dying within a year, so about 2.1% over three months with no diagnosis at all. The diagnosis: Gleason 9 prostate cancer with bone metastasis, hormone-sensitive, announced May 2025. SEER's distant-stage five-year relative survival for men diagnosed in 2015 to 2021 is 38% (American Cancer Society), which averages out to an extra 17.6% a year of mortality on top of the table; combined, about 24% a year, or 6.8% over the three months left. That lands almost exactly on this market's price. The caveat cuts toward NO: relative survival is an average over five years, and hormone-sensitive disease that is responding to androgen deprivation sits below the average hazard in its first years, so the honest range is roughly 4 to 7%.