Which of these products will be available to consumers LAST? (Add answers!)
➕
Plus
42
Ṁ2059
2030
15%
Smart phone WITHOUT a charging port (no charging or wireless charging only)
24%
Fully offline LLM with performance exceeding the best existing GPT-4 variant
28%
CPU with 200 or more physical cores
36%
Grand Theft Auto 7
45%
3.5/2.5 inch or M.2 form factor HDD or SSD with at least 1PB (petabyte) capacity
48%
Solid State Battery EV
49%
Neuralink-like implant (brain-computer-interface)
50%
CPU with stock frequency 8GHz or above
53%
Betavoltaic battery (Nuclear battery)
58%
PC with quantum computing capability
74%
nuclear powered transportation vehicle

Which of the listed planned or announced products/innovations be available for consumer purchase LAST?

Each answer resolves to a percent:

0% - First product to be available

1% - Next product

[...]

100% - Product on this list that is available last, or not at all.

To count as being available to consumers a product must:

  • Be purchasable in reasonably small quantities by a private individual (so company-only 100k+ orders don't count)

  • Not be a custom-order or on-demand-only item. I.e. a billionaire buying a spaceship today (Feb 2024) doesn't count, since that would require a custom order/contract. It must be something that you, me, or your friends with sufficient funds could go online, to a store, or pick up a phone and buy.

  • Must be obtained by consumers (pre-orders don't count until they are delivered)

  • Can be a part of a larger product, so long as the item in question is a "substantial" part of the larger product. For example: solid state battery would resolve YES if an EV with a solid state battery became available. A good way to judge if it is "substantial" or not is whether or not the innovation/specific feature is a marketing point for the larger item.

Items that are already available at the time of this market's creation (Feb 19 2024) will be N/A'd. Items that could not reasonably be available to consumers before 2050 will be N/A'd (warp drive, time machine, nuclear bomb, etc).

Please add your own answers! If you're a new trader (2 or fewer months on Manifold) I will reimburse the cost of adding one answer. Just DM me!

I will not participate in this market.

As always feel free to discuss, question, or disagree with my resolution criteria in the comments.

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Some of these are definitely not calibrated. GTA 7 after NeuralLink but before solid state battery EVs?

I'd subsidize and/or boost this market if my balance wasn't literally negative.

If anyone wants a slightly shorter-term market for the nuclear battery: https://manifold.markets/Retr0id/will-the-bv100-nuclearpowered-batte

@Retr0id And here's and even shorter term one that's not specific to a particular company or model:

bought Ṁ20 NO

The gap between this market and the nuclear batteries 2025 market is wild.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Shouldn't this resolve to multiples of 14.3% (=100%/7) with 8 options?

Instead of 0% - First product to be available, 1% - Next product [...]

@8Kraken8 Except it's an open market where people can add their own answers. It's just like this market

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