Which of these products will be available to consumers LAST? (Add answers!)
42
442
1.9k
2030
15%
Smart phone WITHOUT a charging port (no charging or wireless charging only)
24%
Fully offline LLM with performance exceeding the best existing GPT-4 variant
28%
CPU with 200 or more physical cores
36%
Grand Theft Auto 7
45%
3.5/2.5 inch or M.2 form factor HDD or SSD with at least 1PB (petabyte) capacity
48%
Solid State Battery EV
49%
Neuralink-like implant (brain-computer-interface)
50%
CPU with stock frequency 8GHz or above
53%
Betavoltaic battery (Nuclear battery)
58%
PC with quantum computing capability
74%
nuclear powered transportation vehicle

Which of the listed planned or announced products/innovations be available for consumer purchase LAST?

Each answer resolves to a percent:

0% - First product to be available

1% - Next product

[...]

100% - Product on this list that is available last, or not at all.

To count as being available to consumers a product must:

  • Be purchasable in reasonably small quantities by a private individual (so company-only 100k+ orders don't count)

  • Not be a custom-order or on-demand-only item. I.e. a billionaire buying a spaceship today (Feb 2024) doesn't count, since that would require a custom order/contract. It must be something that you, me, or your friends with sufficient funds could go online, to a store, or pick up a phone and buy.

  • Must be obtained by consumers (pre-orders don't count until they are delivered)

  • Can be a part of a larger product, so long as the item in question is a "substantial" part of the larger product. For example: solid state battery would resolve YES if an EV with a solid state battery became available. A good way to judge if it is "substantial" or not is whether or not the innovation/specific feature is a marketing point for the larger item.

Items that are already available at the time of this market's creation (Feb 19 2024) will be N/A'd. Items that could not reasonably be available to consumers before 2050 will be N/A'd (warp drive, time machine, nuclear bomb, etc).

Please add your own answers! If you're a new trader (2 or fewer months on Manifold) I will reimburse the cost of adding one answer. Just DM me!

I will not participate in this market.

As always feel free to discuss, question, or disagree with my resolution criteria in the comments.

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Some of these are definitely not calibrated. GTA 7 after NeuralLink but before solid state battery EVs?

I'd subsidize and/or boost this market if my balance wasn't literally negative.

If anyone wants a slightly shorter-term market for the nuclear battery: https://manifold.markets/Retr0id/will-the-bv100-nuclearpowered-batte

@Retr0id And here's and even shorter term one that's not specific to a particular company or model:

bought Ṁ20 Betavoltaic battery ... NO

The gap between this market and the nuclear batteries 2025 market is wild.

bought Ṁ10 Smart phone WITHOUT ... NO

Shouldn't this resolve to multiples of 14.3% (=100%/7) with 8 options?

Instead of 0% - First product to be available, 1% - Next product [...]

@8Kraken8 Except it's an open market where people can add their own answers. It's just like this market

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