💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]
100
Ṁ3.3kṀ8.7k
2030
98.1%
Beeminder
98%
Obsidian (notetaking)
95%
Manifold.markets
95%
Reddit
94%
AnkiWeb
94%
rdrama.net
92%
Notion
92%
Discord
91%
Pornhub
88%
Uber
87%
Substack
86%
Hacker News (news.ycombinator.com)
85%
Tumblr
83%
Hinge
83%
Goodreads
82%
Twitch.tv
81%
4chan.org
80%
Logseq
80%
Dustloop
80%
SufficientVelocity forum

Rules (work in progress)

  • If the domain is still there but only hosting a simple page instead of the original product/service, I will not count that as working

Market context
Culture
Technology
Entertainment and Pop Culture
Gaming
Internet
Web Browser
Apps
App Stores
Websites
Web Frontend
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bought Ṁ50 NO

https://frontofficesports.com/abc-disney-layoffs-538-shuttered/

538 is on it’s way out.

If the website is still there but has significantly reworked their product and gone through multiple owners, like Yahoo or MySpace, does it resolve yes?

bought Ṁ5 NO

first thought: NO, could easily run out of money

second thought: YES, if the site is dead who cares about losing the bet

third thought: NO, there's a non-trivial chance that the domain could change (e.g. .markets gTLD changes ToS, ramps up prices, ceases to exist, etc.)

oh and there's also the chance that The Pivot changes the name...

By Lindy's law Beeminder will be around, in expectation, till 2036-12-11 or 2040-12-24, depending on what we count as Beeminder's creation date.

@dreev yay!

bought Ṁ20 YES

cool question chris

bought Ṁ10 YES

What is dead may never die

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