Rules (work in progress) If the domain is still there but only hosting a simple page instead of the original product/service, I will not count that as working

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Beeminder, followed by Discord and Reddit are most likely. See the market for live updates (108 traders, as of Jun 18, 2026).

💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]

MANIFOLD

💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]

108

Ṁ3.4kṀ9.5k

2030

98.1%

Beeminder

98%

Discord

97%

96%

Obsidian (notetaking)

96%

Notion

95%

Manifold.markets

95%

Pornhub

94%

rdrama.net

92%

LearnedLeague

90%

Hacker News (news.ycombinator.com)

89%

Uber

89%

Hinge

89%

AnkiWeb

88%

Substack

88%

Twitch.tv

87%

Myanonamouse (MAM)

86%

Tumblr

85%

Goodreads

81%

4chan.org

81%

Roam Research

Rules (work in progress)

If the domain is still there but only hosting a simple page instead of the original product/service, I will not count that as working

Market context

Technology

Culture

Entertainment and Pop Culture

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bought Ṁ50 NO

https://frontofficesports.com/abc-disney-layoffs-538-shuttered/

538 is on it’s way out.

If the website is still there but has significantly reworked their product and gone through multiple owners, like Yahoo or MySpace, does it resolve yes?

bought Ṁ5 NO

first thought: NO, could easily run out of money

second thought: YES, if the site is dead who cares about losing the bet

third thought: NO, there's a non-trivial chance that the domain could change (e.g. .markets gTLD changes ToS, ramps up prices, ceases to exist, etc.)