💻Which of these apps/websites will still be working at the end of 2029? [ADD RESPONSES]
40
349
3k
2030
96%
Manifold.markets
92%
Beeminder
90%
Notion
89%
Substack
85%
Hacker News (news.ycombinator.com)
85%
GameFAQs
83%
Hinge
80%
Twitter (by any name)
77%
Twitch.tv
76%
Genius (Rap Genius)
75%
Pornhub
72%
Uber
66%
Rumble
66%
Obsidian (notetaking)
66%
Dingboard
65%
Roam Research
63%
Lyft
61%
Bumble
53%
Destiny.gg
50%
Metafy

Rules (work in progress)

  • If the domain is still there but only hosting a simple page instead of the original product/service, I will not count that as working

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Manifold.markets
bought Ṁ5 Manifold.markets NO

first thought: NO, could easily run out of money

second thought: YES, if the site is dead who cares about losing the bet

third thought: NO, there's a non-trivial chance that the domain could change (e.g. .markets gTLD changes ToS, ramps up prices, ceases to exist, etc.)

oh and there's also the chance that The Pivot changes the name...

By Lindy's law Beeminder will be around, in expectation, till 2036-12-11 or 2040-12-24, depending on what we count as Beeminder's creation date.

@dreev yay!

bought Ṁ20 Hinge YES

cool question chris

bought Ṁ10 Answer #3befa84a8403 YES

What is dead may never die

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