Will a nuclear battery be available for consumers in 2024?
53
1.8k
2025
6%
chance

Recently, there has been a significant amount of hype around a Chinese company by the name of Betavolt for launching a betavoltaic battery with a claimed 50 year lifespan:

https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/nuclear-battery-betavolt-atomic-china-b2476979.html

https://www.batterytechonline.com/materials/betavolt-battery-50-year-charge-cellphone-powered-for-decades

https://newatlas.com/energy/betavolt-diamond-nuclear-battery/

Will a consumer be able to buy one of these before the end of the year in the US, Canada, UK, Australia, New Zealand, or EU?

Resolves YES if:

  • Before 12AM GMT January 1st, 2025 a private individual in the US, UK, Canada, EU, Australia, NZ, or EEA member nation is able to buy betavoltaic batteries individually or in small quantities. I.e. not only companies or in massive batches of several thousands which have to be acquired via a contract.

  • Must be purchasable from a reputable supplier (e.g. not merely a shell company on AliExpress or Wish claiming to sell a nuclear battery)

  • DIY or educational kits do not count. Must be a "production-level" device.

  • Must come fully assembled with radioactive material. (i.e. no "bring your own tritium batteries)

  • Must be purchasable as a standalone product. So pacemakers with nuclear batteries do not count unless one could go to a store or online and buy the batteries themselves without needing to have a pacemaker in order to make the purchase.

  • The product need not be from Betavolt specifically.

Resolves NO if:

  • The above criteria are not met by market close.

Resolves to some percentage if:

  • A hybrid battery becomes available.

  • If a device meets all the requirements but the minimum order quantity is some value large enough as to be potentially prohibitive for a consumer, but still small enough to be conceivable that a hobbiest might buy them. E.g. if the minimum order quantity is in the hundreds and the total cost doesn't exceed a few tens of thousands.

As always, please leave comments if my criteria are unclear or you disagree with them.

I will not trade in this market.

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@traders I added a small correction to the description to align with the title of the market: The device need not be from Betavolt specifically, it need only be a betavoltaic device.

If this significantly changes your position on the market, please let me know and I'll refund your position.