Will Russia launch a military attack against a NATO member by the end of 2024?
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Russia launched a multifocal military attack on Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. The scale of the combat, as well as Russian rhetoric, leaves the possibility of additional military actions in the region.

If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of a NATO member, and/or targeting facilities, vehicles or citizens of a member country of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31st, 2024, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.

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There are advisors and volunteers deployed in Ukraine from NATO countries. They are, on occasion, killed by Russians. Where does that sit?

Does a Russian missile passing through a NATO member's airspace count if it doesn't hit anything? What if that missile is shot down and causes damage?