Will Russia launch a military attack against a NATO member by the end of 2024?
Plus
12
Ṁ845Jan 1
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Russia launched a multifocal military attack on Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. The scale of the combat, as well as Russian rhetoric, leaves the possibility of additional military actions in the region.
If Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of a NATO member, and/or targeting facilities, vehicles or citizens of a member country of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31st, 2024, then the resolution of this market will be “Yes”. Kinetic military action excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources and includes the shooting of projectiles, troops, and military vehicles deployment inside a territory.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO member by the end of November 2024?
3% chance
Will a NATO country shoot down a Russian military asset by end of 2024?
19% chance
Will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO member by the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will Russia launch a North Korean satellite by the end of 2024?
20% chance
Will Russian missile hit NATO territory in 2024?
15% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test by the end of 2024?
9% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
16% chance
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
18% chance
Will any NATO country engage in military conflict with Russia in 2024?
10% chance