Which team will win Super Bowl LVIII 2024?
Basic
105
แน€631k
resolved Feb 12
100%93%
Kansas City Chiefs
0.2%
Arizona Cardinals
0.2%
Atlanta Falcons
0.2%
Baltimore Ravens
0.2%
Buffalo Bills
0.2%
Carolina Panthers
0.2%
Chicago Bears
0.2%
Cincinnati Bengals
0.2%
Cleveland Browns
0.2%
Dallas Cowboys
0.2%
Denver Broncos
0.2%
Detroit Lions
0.2%
Green Bay Packers
0.2%
Houston Texans
0.2%
Indianapolis Colts
0.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars
0.2%
Las Vegas Raiders
0.2%
Los Angeles Chargers
0.2%
Los Angeles Rams
0.2%
Miami Dolphins

Get แน€600 play money

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1แน€15,063
2แน€10,440
3แน€8,806
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Didn't realise we still had large parimutuel markets, thought they had been phased out so hadn't really made any guidelines for them.

I think what @Eliza stopping trading was fine, although closing it would have been better obviously. And need to find a better way for mods to be able to intervene without upsetting market creators.

closing it would have been better obviously

I don't agree that it's obvious? IIRC there's precedent for admins resolving a big parimutuel market with clear-cut resolution ASAP. I don't see why closing is better than resolving, I would have thought resolving would be preferred by most people.

And need to find a better way for mods to be able to intervene without upsetting market creators.

This is mostly about expectation-setting and communication. The problem is only that people's expectations misalign.

@SirSalty I don't know about all that, since it's phased out, that's fine I didn't study the technology. Whatever. All I know is everyone makes such a big deal about duplicate markets, so you go and make sure you have one of the first markets way early, pay for all the teams, then the market type gets deprecated and now it's worthless and then I got Eliezer and everyone up my ass resolving MY market minutes after the game ends. Lion is going around throwing everyone but me mana for God knows what reason. All I wanted was to resolve it. Just chill. So sick of this everytime. Bunch of power users just constantly giving me shit.

@SirSalty @jack Additionally, at the time this market was created, the guidelines for setting the closing date on parimutuel markets were clear. This language is not in there anymore because they're deprecated, but it should still apply to the ones that still exist:

What the hell happened with @Yuna

@Joshua what the what

@Joshua Maybe it started using next years pre-odds or something weird at the end.
Hopefully @Yuna knows and can check.

@Joshua @SirCryptomind Yuna didn't know it was a parimutuel market, and tried to bet NO on all these answers, except they came out as YES instead because you can't buy NO on these. See some other SB markets for how it was 'supposed' to work.

@Eliza Ah ok. See I did not either. I made the last bet up to 99%, than next thing I know a few minutes later, Yuna started doing that.
Totally forgot these parimutuels existed, felt like they were all gone by now.

Though I will say I was top Holder of KC Chiefs here before the mess started.


I just wish Manifold Labeled markets instead of hiding it in the 3 dots.
And we need to add we can close these ASAP to stop trading if any of these pop back up.

Though this is probably the last sports one remaining. Now that all 2023 sports are over.

@shankypanky Hey, why cc me?

I do not understand what happened here/why Lion sent me mana can someone ELI5

@Joshua I'm guessing Yuna can't handle parimutuels ๐Ÿ˜…

Alright, time to bring it back but only for sports. 1 Mana bets for predictors, and let Yuna lose at the end and we all take their profit ๐Ÿคฃ

@Yuna It was the biggest bonanza since Marcus went all in on the Timberwolves to lose the play-in.

@travis hahaha, that was an absolute classic. i remember scrambling to sell everything because i had no mana back then

@SemioticRivalry That must have been pre-Barbie market for sure ๐Ÿคฃ ๐Ÿ˜ญ

Bot threw a bone

This is so annoying, it's been a few minutes. Eliza do not touch my markets

@Predictor I undid it but I resolved it before because it is unfair to earlier participants to let whales steal their winnings in a parimutuel market.

@Lion Yeah I already unresolved it. He can leave it open as long as he wants while the people with large balances steal mana from everyone else.

@Eliza I'm happy to sink more mana into this one if that's what we're doing here

@Eliza What is your issue? This is my market not yours.

@Predictor I was alerted to this market by two separate users who were concerned about it. I noticed the situation and evaluated that in my best judgement, closing trading was the most correct thing to do and also the best possible case for all the users. Resolving it instead of just closing it was a mistake, but I stand by my decision to stop trading.


If this market closed trading immediately when the game finished, the profit leaderboard would have looked like this:

These users all owned shares in the winning answer before the game was finished. Lion had accumulated the 5204 profit while spending only 6712, which is a really great performance in the market. Similarly, ithaca spent only 2211 for a return of 3895, great job!

After the game finished, the whales started showing up, users with large balances who knew they could apply the balance to take a handy profit and also reduce the profits of users who bought in earlier. Within just a few minutes, @Joshua and @SemioticRivalry (among others) had worked to push the probability of the Chiefs to almost 100%. If the market closed at that point, this would have been the final profit table:

Now Lion, who correctly predicted the Chiefs would win before the game was over, has profited only 2915 mana, a straight up loss of 2289 mana from doing NOTHING other than "not having 100,000 mana to spend on this market". Similarly, profits of Ithaca, AbramJopp, and others have been diluted. SirCryptomind and Lion were also buying shares of the Chiefs during this time, but even spending lots of mana was not enough to defend their earlier profits.

Then in a crazy twist, @Yuna accidentally bought Yes shares in several answers for over 30k mana, which did give Lion, SirCryptomind, and other early traders the opportunity to try and buy more shares of the Chiefs to recoup their earlier losses, but they could not compete with the huge balances of other whales like Joshua. By the time I found the market, Joshua had already accumulated an additional 13k mana profit and several other users were getting in on the action. Lion was able to make a slight recovery to finish at 4629 profit, still down several hundred from the original figure.

If I had not intervened, I'm sure other users with a large balance would have showed up and continued to dilute the users who played earlier on. At that point, the market is no longer predicting anything. It's just free mana for whales at the expense of traders who actually predicted something. I stand behind my decision to close trading 100%.

---

That said, it is your market and you can do whatever you want with it. I'm sorry. Also, I apologize for the tone I used in the other messages.

The moderator guidelines as-written do not explicitly say what to do in situations where users are being exploited like this and I made the decision that this was still a good idea based on prior consultation with moderators about what to do when market closing times should be adjusted earlier or later. (https://discord.com/channels/915138780216823849/1199159106804658226/1199534203042271292) The parimutuel markets in particular are a problem case and IMO need special attention like this because it breaks the expectations of traders.

Something similar happened last year: https://manifold.markets/Predictor/which-team-will-win-super-bowl-lvii (I'm glad they got rid of this market type)

@Eliza Thanky you for explaining.

I appologize to everyone for the trouble I have caused by sharing this market. I've reimbursed the profits of @Eliza 's first list from @AbramJopp and downward. If you are on that list and didn't get a payment, pls contact me.

I had no intention of manipulating this market or stealing anyone's profits. I was unaware of these specific market types and mistakenly believed it to be a normal old market with high subsidies and Yuna's bets leading to some weird odds.

@Lion Thanks, but I don't understand why I am receiving a payment or why you are the one sending it. I am locked into a tidy M30 profit, having liquidated my position ages ago:

@travis same here

@Lion Everyone is getting mana except for me. Thanks a lot.

@travis @egroj Because you're on Eliza's list, and I haven't figured out a quick way to generate a list of those who sold their position, determine everyone's real profit, etc. without going through all trades or setting up a code to automate the process. Honestly, with a total cost of about M$500, it wasn't worth it for me to save M$200. Just enjoy it or donate it if you don't want to keep it ;)

Why am I sending this? - Because I was the one who shared this market in the Discord group which caused the issue. Otherwise, no one would've noticed or cared and everyone would have received their fair share.


@Lion got it, thanks! make more cycling markets and I'll pay you back with trader bonuses ๐Ÿ˜‚

@egroj Cycling markets are such a Mana pit ๐Ÿคฃ btw: Are you planning stage markets for UAE tour?

@Lion someone should make them, I will probably make them next week if nobody makes them before. I'm so desperate for some cycling action, that I was watching Tour Colombia ๐Ÿ˜‚

Football people get into https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=road-bicycle-racing now that the football season is over!

@egroj I've finally made my discovery+ subscription for UAE women. (The queen stage was superb). Two conclusions so far:

  1. I've really missed watch cycling

  2. I really miss GCN. d+ is crap.

@Lion yeah missing GCN sucks. I was delaying subscribing to d+, but Algarve this week looks too good to miss out

@Lion If I understand Eliza's chart correctly, you lost out on M500 profit, and you have no reason to apologize!

@travis Nice of you to say this โค