French, Polish, German and/or British troops deployed to Ukraine by end of 2030? | Manifold

French, Polish, German and/or British troops deployed to Ukraine by end of 2030?

21

100Ṁ676

2031

64%

chance

4

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

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Market context

Ukraine-Russia war

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bought Ṁ10 NO

Base rate is few years per century. 5 years left. So 20% tops. Am I wrong?

@mariopasquato i don't even know what to say... "You are not even wrong"?

@hidetzugu do you have any arguments for disregarding the base rate here?

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