AKA will Brackeen have to buy Wink a cheesesteak?
This market is inspired by the above public wager between venture capitalist Brian Brackeen and journalist Christopher Wink, and resolves based on the total number employed software developers in the United States, as measured by official government statistics.
Brackeen (NO) argues that AI and macroeconomic conditions will reduce the number of software developers within a year.
Wink (YES) counters that the field will remain resilient and grow, despite AI-driven disruptions and recent slowdowns in hiring.
Relevant factors include:
The impact of AI tools on developer productivity and job necessity.
Broader tech industry hiring trends.
Labor force participation and macroeconomic conditions.
Shifts in job titles and classification (e.g., developer vs. programmer vs. engineer).
Resolution Criteria:
This market resolves YES if the total number of employed software developers in the United States in June 2026 is greater than the number in June 2025.
The market resolves NO if the number is lower in June 2026 than June 2025
In the event of the report that there were exactly the same number of software developers employed during both months, the market will resolve N/A. Highly unlikely though.
Data Source:
Resolution will be based on data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), specifically the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) or Current Population Survey (CPS) — using the standard occupational classification for “Software Developers” (SOC 15-1252) or a comparable classification if updated.
If June 2026 data is not yet available by the resolution deadline (e.g. due to release lags), the most recent available data will be used as close to June 2026 as possible, with preference given to monthly CPS data if available.
If data becomes unavailable or ambiguous, resolution will be based on a consensus of reputable third-party labor market analysis (e.g., CompTIA, LinkedIn Workforce Report, or similar).
Market closes on May 31, 2026 (shortly before expected BLS publication).
As always, good fun, and have luck!
-ShuckleLord
1,000People are also trading
When this closes, please ping me. I know @PowerTrick in real life and can ping them to resolve this.
@100Anonymous I want to respect their right to privacy and reveal as little as possible.
I'll say that I've at least met them face to face and have their contact info.
@Quroe no problem lol, its usually rare to have two people on the internet know each other face-to-face
@100Anonymous I'm their "referral parent" to Manifold. Check out their referral page on their profile to confirm.
@PowerTrick Could you clarify the resolution criteria? OEWS releases are like a year after the time period (May 2025 release was earlier this month), so I don't think it works. BLS doesn't publish CPS monthly estimates for specific classifications, only very broad groups like "Service occupations," so you have to manually extract the CPS microdata (Although I don't think it's actually much extra work). Is that the intended resolution source?
Edited: dumb comment, apparently there's no delete