Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if the unemployment rate for the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area in June 2026 is higher than the rate in May 2026. It resolves to "No" otherwise.

The primary source for resolution will be the data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their monthly "Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment" news release. Data can be tracked here: https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laummtrk.htm.

If the BLS does not publish data for the Chicago metropolitan area for these specific months, or if the data is suppressed, the market will resolve based on the next available official report from the Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES).

Background

The unemployment rate for a given area is calculated by the BLS and reflects the percentage of the labor force that is jobless and actively seeking employment. Monthly fluctuations in regional unemployment rates can be influenced by seasonal hiring patterns, local economic conditions, and revisions to previous data releases. Traders should note that initial figures for these months may be subject to subsequent revisions by the BLS.