Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will July 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ6
Aug 7
45%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for July 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs. Use the headline establishment-survey change in total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted. A value of +150,000 or higher resolves YES. A value of +149,000 or lower resolves NO. Negative values resolve NO. Do not use the unemployment rate, household-survey employment, labor-force participation, ADP, initial claims, JOLTS, private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, state payrolls, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 Employment Situation release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the July 2026 headline total nonfarm payroll change unless there is no such release by August 14, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_revised_total_nonfarm_payroll_change": 179000, "may_2026_total_nonfarm_payroll_change": 172000, "may_2026_unemployment_rate": 4.3, "release": "The Employment Situation, May 2026", "release_date": "2026-06-05"}, "metric": "Change in total nonfarm payroll employment, establishment survey, seasonally adjusted", "related_non_duplicates": ["June 2026 Employment Situation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "Unemployment-rate, U-6, labor-force-participation, household-employment, claims, ADP, and JOLTS markets are not duplicates.", "Private-payrolls-only, sector payrolls, revisions, forecast-consensus, and exact-release-time markets are not duplicates.", "July 2026 CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-sales, industrial-production, housing, and permits markets are different statistical releases."], "release_schedule": "BLS Employment Situation schedule lists July 2026 for 2026-08-07 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Employment Situation release for July 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS pages may return HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; official BLS pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation.", "threshold": "+150,000 jobs or more"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS August 2026 selected releases schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/08_sched_list.htm - BLS May 2026 Employment Situation archive: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_06052026.htm - BLS current Employment Situation page: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!