Will the bureau of labor report that there were more computer programmers in the US in 2030 than 2023?
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2030
11%
chance

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were ~150k employed computer programmers in the U.S. in May 2021. Will that number grow (or shrink, perhaps due to automation) between now and 2030?

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Worth noting that the BLS has very different numbers for "software developers" vs "programmers" despite them often being interchangable in common parlence: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm

@ElliotDavies 1.7m working in software development vs 0.14 for programming, also expecting 25% growth for software development vs 11% decline for programming

That's a pretty big change from January to now. What changed?

@Nikos I'll reveal why I bet the market from 80 to 20. Here's the graph of programmers over time:

You can see the number of programmers has fallen ever since ChatGPT came out in 1998.

@ducat Woah! That is not what I expected! Thanks for sharing.

@ducat Lmao!

@ducat Where is your data from?

@ElliotDavies https://www.bls.gov/oes/tables.htm

I downloaded each national XLS file listed here

@ducat It’s very unintitive to me that there was more programmers in 2000 than there was in 2008. It’s also a little strange that the BLS is projecting a 10% decline when your graph looks much worse than that.

Since the exact profession of computer programmer is much more fine grained now it’s likely more people will work with programming - but not under the definition found at BLS.

bought Ṁ20 NO at 50%
bought Ṁ25 of NO

The bureau of labor already believes compute programmers will be 11% less common in 2032 than in 2022.

https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-programmers.htm

@Vorak Unless their estimates dramatically updated in the past 1-2 years since generative AI (code and otherwise) swept the planet, I don't put much stock in them.

bought Ṁ300 of YES

Basis of my YES votes is to some large extent this:

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