If Manifold Markets adds real money (crypto/other) trading, will it become worse?

Ṁ100Ṁ1.2k

resolved Dec 13

Resolved

YES

ALL

If by market close the chance is above 50% it will resolve to yes, otherwise it will resolve to no. If I suspect market manipulation or a bet is made near closing that heavily effects the outcome, I will resolve N/A.

Update 2025-12-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market close time has been changed to Friday of the coming week (from the original close date of 2026-12-11). The creator will refund traders who are adversely affected by this change if they message them.

Market context

Manifold

Manifold Users

Manifold Features

Predictions on Predictions

Manifold Business Future

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ52
2		Ṁ41
3		Ṁ30
4		Ṁ25
5		Ṁ13

People are also trading

If Manifold moves to crypto, where will it incorporate?

Will Manifold Markets still be popular at the end of 2026?

63% chance

Will Manifold Markets have a manifold market?

26% chance

Will Manifold Markets launch a crypto token before 2027?

21% chance

If a third party starts allowing Manifold users to cash out their mana for real money, will Manifold shut it down?

93% chance

If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?

62% chance

Will Manifold Markets still be active in 2030?

92% chance

Will Manifold Markets still exist in 2040?

Sort by:

Meant to put resolution as Friday of this coming week. Going to change close time. If this effects your trade adversely, message me and I will refund whatever you put into the market.

@Porcupine I can see you're new here, so for some help as you make new markets in the future: This market would have a more meaningful result as poll than a market. This resolves only to the user with the most mana, there is no grounding in reality.

Check out this classic for why this market type doesn't work as a binary market:

https://manifold.markets/post/selfresolving-markets-why-they-dont

If you use the poll type instead, users can vote their true belief.

@Eliza in hindsight I agree it’s better as a poll. But first few people are likely betting on: do you think other Manifold users will be inclined to answer the question yes or no? So might not be entirely useless in assessing what people think consensus will be. Albeit, I am sure people can point to many counterexamples that have worked poorly as a binary market.

@Porcupine

do you think other Manifold users will be inclined to answer the question yes or no?

I think it's highly likely this market resolves Yes based on the existing trading patterns, but if one or two users come along and decide they want it to resolve No, it will. Or maybe 150 users show up and put millions of mana on the line.

Regardless, the outcome of the market has no bearing on the actual sentiment of site users regarding the question at hand. Because it resolves only based on its own value, it has no grounding.

----

You can't change it in this case, but if you made a new market like this, one thing people do is "Resolves according to the results of the poll I will run on XX date in the future". Then people can bet in the market pending the results of a poll, which at least has some grounding to "what did users actually think" (arguments can be inserted here for the effectiveness of this strategy vs. just having a poll).