Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the US attempts to capture or establish a blockade of Kharg Island before March 31, 2026. An "attempt" includes any military operation—whether amphibious assault, special operations deployment, or sustained blockade—aimed at seizing control of or restricting access to the island's oil export facilities. The market resolves NO if no such military action is initiated by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CNBC, etc.) confirming that US forces have engaged in combat operations targeting the island or have established a naval blockade preventing oil exports.

Background

Kharg Island, located about 15 miles off Iran's coast, serves as the centerpiece for Iran's oil industry, accounting for roughly 90% of the country's crude exports. The island is connected by pipelines to Iran's major onshore oilfields and hosts large deep-water terminals capable of loading some of the world's biggest oil tankers. Following the beginning of the 2026 Iran war on February 28, analysts interpreting satellite imagery noted that Iran apparently expected Kharg Island to become a target and had started to reduce the amount of oil in storage there since early February.

The Trump administration has discussed seizing the island, according to an Axios report on March 7, citing four unnamed sources with knowledge of the discussions. Analysts say U.S. President Donald Trump may be tempted to order U.S. forces to try to seize Kharg Island, while warning that any such move would be fraught with risk.

Considerations

Any attempt to seize Kharg would likely require a ground troop operation, which the U.S. appears reluctant to undertake. Any US operation to capture the island would have to cross open water under the threat of Iranian anti-ship missiles, naval mines, fast-attack boats, and drones, with Iran having spent decades refining these asymmetric tactics specifically for the confined waters of the Persian Gulf. The Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that an attack on the island, or a blockade of its facilities, could push oil prices up by roughly $10 per barrel.

This description was generated by AI.