Will there be 5 or more confirmed violent tornadoes (EF4 or EF5) occur in the USA during 2025?

150Ṁ344

resolved May 20

Resolved

YES

ALL

Tornado outbreak of March 13–16 (Included 3 EF4 Tornadoes)

From April 16 there have been at least 1 EF4 tornadoes, possibly 2

London Kentucky Tornado Confirmed As EF4

This market will resolve YES if there are 5 or more confirmed EF4 or EF5 tornadoes in the United States during the calendar year 2025. Resolution will be based on official National Weather Service storm surveys and the NOAA Storm Events Database.

Resolution Sources:

NOAA Storm Events Database: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/
National Weather Service Storm Surveys
Wikipedia's 2025 Tornado Season page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2025

Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided an update on specific tornadoes relevant to the market's resolution:
- A tornado near Marion, Illinois has been confirmed as EF4.
- If the tornado that went through London, Kentucky (currently rated EF3+) is upgraded to an EF4 or EF5, this would bring the total of such tornadoes to 5, and the market will resolve YES.

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@traders New market: https://manifold.markets/RZacDQ/how-many-ef4-tornadoes-will-have-hi

@traders Tornado near Marion Illinois confirmed EF4. The tornado the went through London Kentucky is currently EF3+, if this is an EF4 or EF5 it will bring our total to 5 resolving the market as yes. If this is resolved I may create a new market on how many EF4+ tornadoes 2025 will finish with.