Will a video essay on the AI risk letter market drop in 2023?
Will a video essay on the AI risk letter market drop in 2023?
20
390Ṁ2668resolved Jan 3
Resolved
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https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize
No need for me to explain what happened in that market, since there's already a Manifold newsletter about it. Will I be able to watch a video essay on it by the end of 2023?
This market was inspired by /turb/will-a-video-essay-on-the-whales-vs, so something similar to the video used to resolve that one would count.
If someone already created one, that counts, too.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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