Will a video essay on the AI risk letter market drop in 2023?
YouTube•Manifold•AI risk•New Year's Resolutions 2024
20
195
Ṁ390
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/quinesweeper/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize

No need for me to explain what happened in that market, since there's already a Manifold newsletter about it. Will I be able to watch a video essay on it by the end of 2023?

This market was inspired by /turb/will-a-video-essay-on-the-whales-vs, so something similar to the video used to resolve that one would count.

If someone already created one, that counts, too.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

Sadly, it appears that Conflux's offer was not enough to convince anyone to make a video essay on this market.

predicted YES

Haven't seen any video essay yet. Did anyone make one?

bought Ṁ60 of NO

I haven't seen one yet! I hereby pledge M$1000 to the first creator of a high-quality video on the AI risk letter market (per my judgement) (bingeworthy's WvM video would definitely count, so anything as good, better, or a bit worse would qualify)

Just realized I had the wrong link in the description. I had linked to the June market rather than the May one, which seems to have been delisted again.

cc: @bingeworthy

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