As of October 9, over one hundred hostages were reported to be held by Hamas at various locations in Gaza. How many of the hostages will be returned to Israel or their home countries alive (via rescue, release, escape or other means)?
@traders I'm extending the close date to end of year (December 31). The resolution will be based on the number of hostages rescued by that date.
@traders I am not up to date on the hostage situation esp how many have been rescued as of today. If you have more context, would appreciate any reliable links or articles. And don't forget to arbitrage and profit if there is mispricing 😃
@PlainBG A total of 117 hostages have been released so far including 8 who have been reached by the IDF.
Here is a similar market that might interest the participants
https://manifold.markets/CarmelHadar/will-there-still-be-israeli-hostage#l3mni1z0g2a
@PlainBG Is this only Israeli hostages, as the title says, or also foreigners, as the description suggests?
For those hostages who are not rescued: https://manifold.markets/Panfilo/will-the-idf-kill-more-of-hamass-re?r=UGFuZmlsbw
This includes only the ones in Gaza, right? Not those who were hostages in Israel and were already freed.
@Shump Yes this is correct. At the moment about 100-150 hostages are reported to be held in various locations in Gaza.