How many hostages will be rescued from Gaza/Hamas?
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50
Ṁ6738
Jan 1
0.9%
0-20
2%
20-50
2%
50-100
93%
100-200
1.2%
200+

As of October 9, over one hundred hostages were reported to be held by Hamas at various locations in Gaza. How many of the hostages will be returned to Israel or their home countries alive (via rescue, release, escape or other means)?

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@traders I'm extending the close date to end of year (December 31). The resolution will be based on the number of hostages rescued by that date.

@PlainBG
why? (not that it matters really, but i cant sea a reason for extension)

@traders I am not up to date on the hostage situation esp how many have been rescued as of today. If you have more context, would appreciate any reliable links or articles. And don't forget to arbitrage and profit if there is mispricing 😃

@PlainBG A total of 117 hostages have been released so far including 8 who have been reached by the IDF.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67477240

Here is a similar market that might interest the participants

https://manifold.markets/CarmelHadar/will-there-still-be-israeli-hostage#l3mni1z0g2a

I made a market specifically about rescue.

@PlainBG Is this only Israeli hostages, as the title says, or also foreigners, as the description suggests?

@Shump I will count both Israeli and foreign nationals.

"Hamas can draw out the cease-fire for up to nine days according to the current agreement"

This means possibly 90 Israeli hostages, in addition to the 20 or so foreign hostages will be released during the ceasefire. But we are just past day 1

Related:

Is this closing on November ninth?

@JaimeSantaCruz Just changed it to Nov 1, 2024

This includes only the ones in Gaza, right? Not those who were hostages in Israel and were already freed.

@Shump Yes this is correct. At the moment about 100-150 hostages are reported to be held in various locations in Gaza.

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