40% chance. This refers to the ~100–250 hostages taken in the raids on Israel by Hamas (and PIJ and other groups) in October 2023, and currently kept captive in Gaza. This market will be resolved once the total number of hostages and their total deaths while hostage are acknowledged by major international media in a non-editorial context, to the best of my knowledge. Freed hostages do not count for this market. Unintentional deaths count based on which side launched the ordnance or fired the gun. Deaths by natural causes (including starvation/dehydration) will not count, unless the siege is lifted, after which they will count as inflicted by Hamas. If the hostage crisis comes to a close with an equal number of deaths inflicted by both sides (including zero) then this will resolve to No. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kidnappings_during_the_2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war