How many hostages will be rescued (alive or dead) by Israeli forces in Gaza in 2023
35
543
1.2K
resolved Jan 21
100%47%
5-10
0.8%
2
0.8%
3
1.6%
4
30%
11-20
4%
21-30
2%
31-40
0.5%
0
12%Other

Hostages who have been rescued may be found in either a living or deceased condition, but must occur through a rescue operation rather than negotiations.

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@AviSchwartz Can you please resolve?

Time to resolve?

Do the three hostages recently murdered by the IDF count as “rescued”, since the operation that found them was in no sense a “rescue”?

@DanPowell Correct, the operation was an assassination, not a rescue in any way or form.

@AviSchwartz I’m dubious of the “assassination” claim, I really don’t think the mission was to kill specific people. I think it’s most likely that the hostages were mistaken for surrendering Hamas or Gazan civilians.

@DanPowell I meant that the killing was unjust, whether the victims would have been unarmed combatants, Palestinian civilians, or Israelis. Murdering people surrendering is not a rescue.

@AviSchwartz Oh, I was perhaps ascribing a much narrower meaning of “assassination”.

Based on what I’ve seen, I would characterize it as something with a worse valence than assassination, but i carefully chose neutral terms.

No one reading the title will think "rescued" includes "deceased", should probably change it.

@Panfilo Done. Thank you for the feedback.

Similar market, without end date

Related market:

@toms Yes, that’s why the lowest bucket starts at 2

@AviSchwartz Someone added a 0 bucket, which I was betting against

@toms Ah!

bought Ṁ20 of Other YES

In 2023, or over the course of the whole conflict?

@Jwags 2023

bought Ṁ42 of 0 NO

@AviSchwartz Could you add that to the title, or at least the description?

@toms Done

@AviSchwartz Thanks!

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