How many hostages will be rescued (alive or dead) by Israeli forces in Gaza in 2023
How many hostages will be rescued (alive or dead) by Israeli forces in Gaza in 2023
35
1.2kṀ3679
resolved Jan 21
100%47%
5-10
0.8%
2
0.8%
3
1.6%
4
30%
11-20
4%
21-30
2%
31-40
0.5%
0
12%Other

Hostages who have been rescued may be found in either a living or deceased condition, but must occur through a rescue operation rather than negotiations.

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1y

@AviSchwartz Can you please resolve?

1y

Time to resolve?

1y

Do the three hostages recently murdered by the IDF count as “rescued”, since the operation that found them was in no sense a “rescue”?

1y

@DanPowell Correct, the operation was an assassination, not a rescue in any way or form.

1y

@AviSchwartz I’m dubious of the “assassination” claim, I really don’t think the mission was to kill specific people. I think it’s most likely that the hostages were mistaken for surrendering Hamas or Gazan civilians.

@DanPowell I meant that the killing was unjust, whether the victims would have been unarmed combatants, Palestinian civilians, or Israelis. Murdering people surrendering is not a rescue.

1y

@AviSchwartz Oh, I was perhaps ascribing a much narrower meaning of “assassination”.

Based on what I’ve seen, I would characterize it as something with a worse valence than assassination, but i carefully chose neutral terms.

1y

No one reading the title will think "rescued" includes "deceased", should probably change it.

1y

@Panfilo Done. Thank you for the feedback.

1y

Similar market, without end date

1y
1y

Related market:

@toms Yes, that’s why the lowest bucket starts at 2

1y

@AviSchwartz Someone added a 0 bucket, which I was betting against

1y

@toms Ah!

1y

In 2023, or over the course of the whole conflict?

1y

@Jwags 2023

1y

@AviSchwartz Could you add that to the title, or at least the description?

1y

@toms Done

1y

@AviSchwartz Thanks!

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