PiotrMazurek avatar
Piotr Mazurek
resolved Jan 27
Will Germany 🇩🇪 decide to send modern tanks to Ukraine by May 31st 2023?
Resolved
YES

Now that France has declared that it will send tanks to Ukraine's aid, the German government will face intense pressure from both its own citizens and German allies to send some modern tanks as well. Will the government decide to send the tanks?


The market will be settled with a "yes" if the German government officially confirms the dispatch of tanks to Ukraine by May 31, 2023 (inclusive).


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-send-ukraine-light-combat-vehicles-kyiv-wants-tanks-allies-2023-01-04/

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Svenbonne avatar
Svenbonne
bought Ṁ500 of YES

This can resolve Yes now @PiotrMazurek

VivaLaPanda avatar

Testing a flow for generating better market images:

JohnGaius avatar

Does Germany permitting other Leopard 2 operators to export their tanks e.g. Finland, count as YES?

PiotrMazurek avatar
Piotr Mazurek
predicted YES at 74%

@JohnGaius No, only sending the tanks owned/bought by Germany counts

PS avatar

- What do you define as "tanks"? Just main battle tanks? What France has decided to send are light tanks, comparable to the Marders Germany has promised it will deliver.
- Do they tanks have to be dispatched by the deadline, or does the decision have to be announced? The title and the description seem contradictory...

PiotrMazurek avatar
Piotr Mazurek
predicted YES at 44%

@PavelSirotkin
1) "Proper" heavy tanks, like Leopards.
2) You are right that the description may sound contradictory. The market is all about the public announcement of the decision. The shipment itself can be made by May 31, but the official announcement must be made before that date.

PS avatar

@PiotrMazurek Thanks for the clarification. Do you mean that the shipment can be made after May 31?

PiotrMazurek avatar
Piotr Mazurek
predicted YES at 75%