Now that France has declared that it will send tanks to Ukraine's aid, the German government will face intense pressure from both its own citizens and German allies to send some modern tanks as well. Will the government decide to send the tanks?
The market will be settled with a "yes" if the German government officially confirms the dispatch of tanks to Ukraine by May 31, 2023 (inclusive).
Does Germany permitting other Leopard 2 operators to export their tanks e.g. Finland, count as YES?
- What do you define as "tanks"? Just main battle tanks? What France has decided to send are light tanks, comparable to the Marders Germany has promised it will deliver.
- Do they tanks have to be dispatched by the deadline, or does the decision have to be announced? The title and the description seem contradictory...
1) "Proper" heavy tanks, like Leopards.
2) You are right that the description may sound contradictory. The market is all about the public announcement of the decision. The shipment itself can be made by May 31, but the official announcement must be made before that date.