The Spanish government is investigating an outbreak of African swine fever, and is considering a lab leak from a research center as a possible cause:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-investigating-whether-swine-fever-outbreak-was-caused-by-laboratory-leak-2025-12-05/
This market will resolve Yes if, before 2028, Spanish authorities conclude that this outbreak of African swine fever most likely came from a leak from a Spanish lab.
Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this market to resolve Yes. If the outbreak is determined to be caused by foreign actors (e.g., biowarfare from another country), this market will resolve No.
1,000In Poland, there are allegations that Polish swine fever was caused by Russian sabotage:
https://bsky.app/profile/notesfrompoland.bsky.social/post/3m75vkgdea22v
If the Spanish outbreak proves to be Russian biowarfare, this market will resolve No -- the lab leak must be from a Spanish lab for this to resolve Yes.