On twitter, some scientists are claiming that genetic evidence indicates the 2021 Ebola outbreak was likely caused by a lab leak. Others are calling these claims unserious. I possess neither the biological expertise nor the knowledge of the particulars here to have an informed opinion, though I'd expect that more likely than not, within 5 years we'll have pretty good evidence one way or the other.
I'll resolve this market in 5 years based on what the general consensus of good-faith domain experts seems to be (if they lean one way, I'll resolve in the direction they lean). If it appears to be a toss-up, I'll resolve it to N/A.
1,000Interesting, it appears the consensus is that it's from a survivor (possibly transmitted as an STD, I'd assume?) This strikes me as very very hard to disentangle from re-contamination from old samples. But given past examples of spread as an STD in survivors, years' later, that seems completely plausible.
