On twitter, some scientists are claiming that genetic evidence indicates the 2021 Ebola outbreak was likely caused by a lab leak. Others are calling these claims unserious. I possess neither the biological expertise nor the knowledge of the particulars here to have an informed opinion, though I'd expect that more likely than not, within 5 years we'll have pretty good evidence one way or the other.

I'll resolve this market in 5 years based on what the general consensus of good-faith domain experts seems to be (if they lean one way, I'll resolve in the direction they lean). If it appears to be a toss-up, I'll resolve it to N/A.