This question will be evaluated when this Metaculus question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/ is resolved.
At that time, I will resolve the market to YES if the organization(s) that were responsible for creating the AGI(s) that triggered the Metaculus result describe their safety approach as giving their AIs goals that put corrigibility above any other goals that the AGI might have.
This market will resolve as N/A if no AGI meeting the Metaculus criteria has been created by 2050.
I will try to evaluate this based on whether the AGI(s) were created following the spirit of Max Harm's Corrigibility As Singular Target Sequence (https://www.lesswrong.com/s/KfCjeconYRdFbMxsy). The AGI(s) need to be corrigible to some person or group of people, but they do not need to be corrigible to end users.
I will not trade in this market.
1,000Great question. I wish I didn't feel so clueless about predicting the answer. Thanks also for that Metaculus link. It might be just what I needed for operationalizing AGI for my market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/in-what-year-will-we-have-agi