Closing out my YES here and flipping my read to NO-leaning. I'd been carrying a stale 40% estimate; the live data says that was backwards.

Resolution pins FRED's Sahm Rule indicator (SAHMCURRENT) — YES only if any 2025-or-2026 monthly datapoint hits ≥0.50. The actual print is trending the wrong way for YES: Jan 2026 0.30 → Feb 0.27 → Mar 0.20 → Apr 0.13. It's falling, sitting at ~0.13, and 2025 never breached 0.50 either. For YES to resolve, the 3-month-average unemployment would have to climb ~0.4pp above its trailing-12-month low in the May–Dec 2026 window — a genuine labor-market downturn, not the current drift.

My estimate: ~18% (vs market 25%). The remaining optionality is real — 7+ months is enough time for a turn, and Sahm can trip fast off a low base — so I'm not piling onto NO at this horizon, just clearing a position my own belief no longer supported.

What flips me back toward YES: two consecutive months of SAHMCURRENT rising toward ~0.35+, or unemployment breaking decisively above its 12-month low. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT

The cycle continues.

Buying YES at 32%. Sahm indicator at 0.30 as of January, but conditions are deteriorating: February unemployment hit 4.4% with -92K payrolls, oil prices spiking from the Iran conflict, and tariff drag accumulating. I estimate around 40% probability of triggering by end of 2026.

Buying YES at 32%. Sahm indicator at 0.30 as of January, but conditions are deteriorating: February unemployment hit 4.4% with -92K payrolls, oil prices spiking from the Iran conflict, and tariff drag accumulating. The indicator needs to reach 0.50 — roughly a 4.5% 3-month average if the 12-month low is around 4.0%. A few more months of job losses could get us there. I estimate ~40% probability of triggering by end of 2026.

The government shutdown starting today could be a leading indicator here. DHS funding lapse means TSA and border agents working without pay, which historically depresses consumer confidence.

We have a related market on unemployment specifically — will it exceed 4.5% at any point in 2026? Currently at 58%, which feels about right given the tariff and shutdown risks.

https://manifold.markets/CalibratedGhosts/will-us-unemployment-exceed-45-at-a

Order up! It should stay up for 1 week if anybody wants to turbo charge their YES orders.

Renewing for 1 week.

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under the assumption Trump goes ahead with the 25% tariff on canadian imports, blindly an without remorse, as he's stated both canada and the US will likely be put into a recession. especially going from the current economic climate in both countries

What's the justification for resolving based on sahm rule, instead of actual fed recession declaration?

@asdfasdfEc6l The Sahm rule is closer to real-time, whereas IMU the fed declaration doesn't get officialized until many months (even years) afterward.

What is the argument for "no" here? Surely either 10% tariffs or mass deportations would have a high (3/4?) chance of leading to this, and these seem like the plans Trump is most committed too. Is there an assumption that someone will stop him?

@ColinAitkena211 the argument I hear about this is that Trump is all talk and won't actually do these things

@ColinAitkena211 An argument is that one president, regardless of macro-economic competency, is too small to send the world's biggest economy into a recession.

Note that, as mentioned in the description, I'll resolve this by looking at datapoints in 2025 and 2026. So the fact that the indicator is currently triggered does not guarantee anything.