If Biden wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025?
If Biden wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025?
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160Ṁ39resolved Sep 4
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If Biden does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Biden does win, resolves to the bond yield on the US 10-year government bond at the end of 2025, times ten. For example, a 4.80% bond yield would result in a "48%" resolution on this question, and so on. A bond yield of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
As a source of bond yields, I will use the the "10y" column on the US Dept of Treasury's published yield curve, here: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202403
I'll use the last published date in 2025.
I will not trade in this market.
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What is Manifold?
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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