If Biden wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025?
Basic
3
Ṁ39resolved Sep 4
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Biden does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Biden does win, resolves to the bond yield on the US 10-year government bond at the end of 2025, times ten. For example, a 4.80% bond yield would result in a "48%" resolution on this question, and so on. A bond yield of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
As a source of bond yields, I will use the the "10y" column on the US Dept of Treasury's published yield curve, here: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202403
I'll use the last published date in 2025.
I will not trade in this market.
Compare:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?
57% chance
If Trump wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025?
32% chance
Will US tariffs go up in 2025 iff Trump wins? (Up if Trump wins, or down if not.)
87% chance
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2024 be 4% or higher?
92% chance
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2024 be 3% or higher?
96% chance
If Biden/Harris wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his/her inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
43% chance
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2024 be 3.5% or higher?
94% chance
If Inflation is below 5% in 2024, Who will win the presidential election? (Biden or Trump)
What will be the highest treasury 10 year yield this year?
63% chance
If Joe Biden is elected US President in 2024, will the US see 3% or higher GDP growth in 2025?
58% chance