If Trump wins, what will US bond yields be at the end of 2025?
14
180แน289Jan 3
43%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Trump does win, resolves to the bond yield on the US 10-year government bond at the end of 2025, times ten. For example, a 4.80% bond yield would result in a "48%" resolution on this question, and so on. A bond yield of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
As a source of bond yields, I will use the the "10y" column on the US Dept of Treasury's published yield curve, here: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202403
I'll use the last published date in 2025.
I will not trade in this market.
Compare:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
๐บ๐ธ If Trump wins, will the US electoral democracy index fall below 0.80 by 2025?
80% chance
Will US tariffs go up in 2025 iff Trump wins? (Up if Trump wins, or down if not.)
99% chance
If Trump wins, what will the Democracy Index be for the US at the end of his presidency?
If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
50% chance
If Trump wins, will the US suicide rate decrease between his inauguration and the 2026 Midterms?
36% chance
30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?
28% chance
If Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?
What will be the value of the S&P 500 at the end of 2028, conditional on Donald Trump being elected in 2024?
Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.