If Biden wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
Basic
2
Ṁ25resolved Sep 4
Resolved
N/A1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Biden does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Biden does win, resolves to unemployment rate at the end of 2026, times 10. For example, an unemployment rate of 3.9% would result in a "39%" resolution on this question, and so on. An unemployment rate of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
I will use BLS's seasonally-adjusted civilian unemployment rate, as here: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm#
I'll use the last published datapoint for 2026. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
I will not trade in this market.
Compare:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
45% chance
The U.S. unemployment rate will surpass 4.5% in 2024.
24% chance
If the Unemployment Rate is 5% or less what will it be by EOY 2024?
The U.S. unemployment rate will reach 6% at some point in 2024.
4% chance
Will unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
24% chance
Will unemployment be at least 7% in November 2024?
1% chance
Will unemployment rate in the United States reach 10% in 2024?
3% chance
Will US unemployment be 10% or more before 2030?
23% chance
Will US unemployment be 20% or more before 2030?
21% chance
If Trump is elected President in 2024, how many unemployed persons per job opening will the US have a year later?