If Biden wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
2
35
αΉ25αΉ140
2027
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Biden does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Biden does win, resolves to unemployment rate at the end of 2026, times 10. For example, an unemployment rate of 3.9% would result in a "39%" resolution on this question, and so on. An unemployment rate of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
I will use BLS's seasonally-adjusted civilian unemployment rate, as here: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm#
I'll use the last published datapoint for 2026. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
I will not trade in this market.
Compare:
Get αΉ600 play money
Related questions
How much of the popular vote will Joe Biden win in the 2024 United States Presidential election?
If Biden wins, will the US enter a recession before 2027?
34% chance
US Unemployment Rate on Election Day 2024?
What will be the turnout rate for the 2024 election?
59% chance
Will the U.S. be at full employment in December 2024?
53% chance
If Biden won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
39% chance
If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
45% chance
How many electoral votes will Biden win in 2024?
286
What will be true of Joe Biden in 2024?
If Biden wins, will there be more than 2 million illegal border crossings in the US-Mexico border in FY 2026?
45% chance