If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?

Question

If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Trump does win, resolves to the unemployment rate at the end of 2026, times 10. For example, an unemployment rate of 3.9% would result in a "39%" resolution on this question, and so on. An unemployment rate of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.

I will use BLS's seasonally-adjusted civilian unemployment rate, as here: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm#
I'll use the last published datapoint for 2026. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)

I will not trade in this market.

Compare:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/PeterF/if-biden-wins-what-will-the-us-jobs)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 46% chance (4 traders, as of Feb 8, 2026).