This question will resolve to "yes" if the "Civilian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted" reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for September 2026 is higher than the rate for either September 2022 or September 2024.
Any adjustments that have been made to previous reports will be applied for purposes of resolving this question.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
(question closing date is the end of October because BLS reports come out the following month)
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@DonMarti7bd2 BLS published September 2026 on Oct 2: the seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate is 4.2% (series LNS14000000). September 2022 was 3.5% and September 2024 was 4.1%, so it is higher than both. This can resolve YES.
https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm
Sept 2024 was 4.1%, so Sept 2026 needs to be at least 4.2% for this to resolve positively. As of April 2026 unemployment is 4.3%. Naively 90% seems a bit overconfident.
@WilliamKiely Oh my bad, I missed the "either" in "either September 2022 or September 2024". So it actually only needs to be higher than Sept 2022 (3.5%). So 3.6% will cause it to resolve positively. 90% makes sense then.