What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?
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501
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2100
40%
chance
Conditional on more than 1,000 persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann's genome reaching age 20 or older by 2100, this question resolves PROB, where PROB is the proportion of persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann age 20 or older who, in a survey, identify as LGBTQ+. This survey will be conducted as soon as possible once there are more than 1,000 such persons, and will aim to contact all such persons (though some amount of nonresponse is inevitable).
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Considering pederasty was extremely common in upper class ancient Greek society, it's clear that most men have the capacity to enjoy and pursue romantic or sexual acts with other men. The low percentage in von Neumann's time is the result of cultural practices rather than inherent personal preferences, so it stands to reason that von Neumann's self-identification is also likely to be due to cultural practices rather than innate preferences.

I would roughly model the percentage of queerness or non-queerness as a social acceptability threshold situation. Von Neumann's desire to express queerness (loud enough for us to notice) wasn't as strong as that of the 1% of the population that still expressed it (loud enough for us to notice), but we don't have any evidence of whether he was 10th percentile or 80th. Likewise, we don't know if von Neumann's resistance to being queer is 1st percentile or 100th, because he wasn't pressured into queerness at all.

If we assume that all von Neumann clones have exactly the same gender/sexual identity as him, then all we know is that they won't be in the 1% that would want to be queer (loud enough for us to notice) even if they were raised in early 20th century Europe. Beyond that, we can only guess randomly, and so the chance of a von Neumann clone being queer is the chance of anyone from the clone's culture being queer minus 1%. All clones in the same culture would be either queer or non-queer, but we don't know which.

If we assume that gender and sexual identity are completely uncorrelated between clones (which seems extreme, given twin studies show correlation), then our best guess will be what is normal in the clone's society, and so the chance of a von Neumann clone being queer is the chance of anyone from the clone's culture being queer. Clones from the same culture would be randomly queer or non-queer, but the base rate would be determined by the culture.

The odds of any clone being queer is almost certainly between these numbers. The odds of any clone responding to a survey as being queer is therefore almost certainly between the percentage of people from their culture that identify as queer in a survey and that percentage minus 1. If von Neumann clones are decanted across different cultures, the responses will depend on how those cultural differences average out.

Currently in the US, 28% of gen z identifies as lgbt+ compared to 6% of millennials and 2% of gen x, and ancient Greece shows that a gayness rate of 80% or more is very possible. It's hard to extrapolate how the percentage will change 76 years from now and in what conditions, if any, von Neumann would be cloned, but a high percentage seems plausible if current trends towards normalization of non-cishet lifestyles continue.

A market on whether the condition happens at all

lol I got a notification about this market right after visiting JvN's grave

bought Ṁ170 of YES

i think 50% of people are trans, that only makes sense. it only makes sense that 50% of people like the same gender as them. its obvious that this would resolve over 70%

@JamieCrom Can't tell if this is troll comment or serious.

predicts YES

@MattP the only chance this resolves less than 70% is when the bigoted behavior and backwards ideas about sex and gender from 80 years ago, it doesnt even make sense to identify lgbtq+ anymore, its just common sense. imagine calling yourself a civil rights advocate today lol

Even if 50% of people are trans, that does not mean that 50% of John von Neumann clones are trans. I expect the gender of identical twins or clones to be positively correlated with each other. This of course raises the unanswerable question of how the original John von Neuman would identify in 2100.

predicts NO

@Yev Note that this does not necessarily resolve in 2100: it resolves as soon as more than 1,000 such persons exist. This means (barring any clandestine research efforts) no sooner than 2042, but not necessarily 2100.

sold Ṁ38 of NO

@JamieCrom By then, ephebophilia will be included in the LGBTQ+ category, and the majority of straight men are (non-exclusive) ephebophiles, so this market should be like 90%

well, being trans is positively correlated with IQ

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@Sinclair I believe this to be true based on my own anecdata, but do you know of any well-controlled studies on this?

bought Ṁ10 of YES
Depends what you mean by identifying as LGBT. Distensions of norms imply by 2100 it will be way more common to use neutral pronoun or for people to be in relationship with anyone no matter the sex. If that's true, the label LGBT will probably not stick around and become obsolete.
predicts NO
@JoyVoid It will mean whatever the people answering the survey consider it to mean.

@JoyVoid This market should hopefully avoid this issue:

predicts YES
Shouldn't this question resolve more than 1 day after the deadline? If the Neumann clones turn 20 on December 31 2099 there probably won't be enough time to survey them.
predicts YES
Would also appreciate clarification on whether the survey will be run "as soon as there are 1000 clones age 20" or "in the year 2100, if there are 1000+ clones at that time." It's possible that clones will die before 2100 or that their sexuality will change over time.
predicts YES
...oh, I should have read the resolution criteria more carefully, never mind.
Amazing market!
bought Ṁ50 of NO
This is an amazing market btw.
predicts NO
@SG I know, right? You have to forecast demographic changes in LGBTQ+ identification, update appropriately on JvN himself being cishet, update appropriately on him living a hundred years ago, and account for short-term fluctuations based on the state of rationalist Internet culture if you plan to sell before resolution.
This is 5% of adults. Any stats otherwise reflect that it’s “trendy” for young women to say they are bisexual despite having zero female partners ever. (And poisoning from plastics and lack of exercise, but over time air pollution was reduced in the West and endocrine poisoning will be as well.)
Also he’s enough of a gigabrain not to need to pretend to be lgbtq or multiracial for diversity Pokémon points (not that there’s anything wrong with that)
@Gigacasting Closer to 8% now.

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