Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?
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2100
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This market will make more sense if you read @PeterBerggren's market first.

Once there are more than 1,000 persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann's genome reaching age 20 or older, we will conduct a survey asking them and a control group (sampled from the general population age 20 or older) whether they identify as LGBTQ+.

This question resolves YES if the LGBTQ+ rate is higher among the John von Neumann clones.
This question resolves NO if the LGBTQ+ rate is higher in the control group.

If there are fewer than 1000 John von Neumann clones when this market closes, I will either move the close date or resolve N/A or MKT.

Sep 18, 2:00pm: Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population? → Will John von Neumann clones be more likely identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

Sep 18, 2:01pm: Will John von Neumann clones be more likely identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population? → Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?

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  • von Neumann was straight AFAIK, so any genetic component of identification will be preserved

  • Clones might have weird chemistry or something that makes them more likely to identify as LGBTQ+

I don't think we know enough about cloning to have a good answer, but my intuition is the first effect is stronger.