This market will make more sense if you read @PeterBerggren's market first.
Once there are more than 1,000 persons conceived through cloning from John von Neumann's genome reaching age 20 or older, we will conduct a survey asking them and a control group (sampled from the general population age 20 or older) whether they identify as LGBTQ+.
This question resolves YES if the LGBTQ+ rate is higher among the John von Neumann clones.
This question resolves NO if the LGBTQ+ rate is higher in the control group.
If there are fewer than 1000 John von Neumann clones when this market closes, I will either move the close date or resolve N/A or MKT.
Sep 18, 2:00pm: Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population? → Will John von Neumann clones be more likely identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?
Sep 18, 2:01pm: Will John von Neumann clones be more likely identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population? → Will John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older be more likely to identify as LGBTQ+ than the general population?
1,000
3.00von Neumann was straight AFAIK, so any genetic component of identification will be preserved
Clones might have weird chemistry or something that makes them more likely to identify as LGBTQ+
I don't think we know enough about cloning to have a good answer, but my intuition is the first effect is stronger.