Will the announcement from OpenAI cause the Manifold "AGI When?" market to shift the expected date for AGI to before 2030?

• The year for resolution will be the average of the o'clock hours for 4 hours after the event. This means that if the OpenAI event finishes at 12:47 PT, the average will be calculated from the "AGI When?" expected year average of the values in the market at (13:00, 14:00, 15:00, 16:00). For example, if the values are (13:00 -> 2027, 14:00 -> 2033, 15:00 -> 2031, 16:00 -> 2030), then the average is (2027+2033+2031+2030)/4 = 2030.25 -> the expected average year is 2030 (decimals are ignored, so 2029.99 rounds down to 2029).

Resolution as YES:

• The "AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]" market's expected average year is BEFORE 2030 (i.e., less than 2030, exclusive of 2030 itself).

Resolution as NO:

• The criteria for a YES resolution are not met.

OP Trading: Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.

RESOLUTION:

11:00 PT -> 2063, 12:00 PT -> 2063, 13:00 PT -> 2034, 14:00 PT -> 2035

(2063+2063+2034+2035)/4 = 2048.75 -> 2048

2048 > 2030 -> NO