Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if any single consumer-grade GPU model reaches an MSRP of $20,000 USD or higher at any point during 2027. Resolution is based on the official manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP) as listed by NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, or other GPU manufacturers—not secondary market prices or AIB (add-in board) partner markups.

For clarity: the MSRP must be the official launch price set by the GPU manufacturer, not inflated retailer pricing. If a manufacturer officially sets an MSRP at or above $20,000 for a consumer-grade GPU (gaming, workstation, or prosumer-focused), the market resolves YES. If no consumer GPU reaches this MSRP threshold by December 31, 2027, the market resolves NO.

Background

The RTX 5090 currently has an MSRP of $1,999, representing the highest-priced consumer GPU on the market. The RTX 3090 launched at $1,499 and the RTX 4090 at $1,599, showing a historical trend of flagship GPU MSRPs in the $1,500–$2,000 range. GPU prices remain 45-55% above MSRP in 2025, with flagship options exceeding $2,000, though these are secondary market prices rather than official MSRPs.

Considerations

Reaching a $20,000 MSRP would represent a 10x increase from current flagship pricing. While structural forces like AI demand, memory shortages, and tariff impacts are expected to persist through 2027, official manufacturer MSRPs have historically remained anchored to performance-per-dollar ratios and competitive positioning. A $20,000 MSRP would likely price consumer GPUs out of reach for virtually all individual buyers and would represent an unprecedented departure from the GPU market's pricing history.