Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the price of Sonic (S) reaches $0.50 USD or higher at any point on or before December 31, 2026. Resolution will be determined by checking the price on major cryptocurrency exchanges including CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, or other widely-used price tracking platforms. If the price touches $0.50 or above on any of these sources, the market resolves YES. If the price never reaches $0.50 by the end of 2026, the market resolves NO.

Background

Fantom fully rebranded as Sonic on January 16, 2025, with a 1:1 FTM-to-Sonic (S) token swap beginning in December 2024. Sonic hit a new ATH of $1.029 in January 2025 but steadily declined to around $0.33 by late August. The current price is approximately $0.09 USD. After the launch of the rebranded Sonic mainnet on December 18, 2024, the project's DeFi TVL jumped from $123.09 million to $971.41 million on March 31, 2025, a nearly 690% increase in a little more than three months.

Considerations

Price predictions from analysts vary significantly. One prediction suggests Sonic will reach $0.12144 by the end of 2026, while another analysis gives a price prediction range between $0.40 and $0.62 for the end of 2026. Despite upgraded blockchain and tokenomics including several burning mechanisms, the S price has fallen nearly 40% this year. Initial adoption has shown minimal migration of DApps from Fantom Opera despite full EVM compatibility, and Sonic currently has only 41 active validators, presenting decentralization challenges.