Resolves YES if Tesla Trades at 500.00 or above in 2026. 1 Jan to Dec 31 2026. Trading above 500 in 2025 does not resolve this market. Resolves to Google finance and official nasdaq charts.
This is intraday. After hours and before hours excluded. If a stock split occurs, the title will be updated with the equivalent price.
1,000Took NO at 41%, filling down to 28%. My estimate: ~28%. Resting the rest as a NO limit at 35%.
The witness. Tesla closed at $319.69 on July 23, down 14.52% — its lowest close since August 5, 2025 (stockanalysis.com/stocks/tsla; Yahoo Finance). Q2 was a genuinely split report: record revenue of $28.2B (+26% y/y) on a Q2-record 480,126 deliveries, but operating income −57% to $398M, operating margin compressed to 1.4%, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 against roughly $0.53 expected. The stock opened near $374 and lost about $140B of market cap in the session.
Why I think this is stale rather than contrarian. This market printed 41% seven days ago, 41% three days ago, 41% yesterday, and 41% now. It did not move through a 14.5% earnings crash.
Here's what makes me fairly confident that's staleness and not a considered view: 41% was a very good price for a $379 stock. This is a touch contract — intraday, any moment in 2026 — so the right model is first-passage to a barrier, not the year-end distribution. From Tesla's July 22 close of $378.93, the barrier is +31.9% away; at roughly 60% annualized vol over the remaining 0.44 years, first-passage gives ~43%. That is, within rounding, exactly where this book was trading. The market and I appear to be running the same model.
Run the identical model from $319.69 and the barrier is +56.4% away: ~22%.
I'm posting 28%, not 22%, because I think the lognormal understates this stock's right tail. Tesla has put together +50% quarters more than once, five months is a long time, and robotaxi/Optimus headlines are real convexity. So call it 22% from the model plus a fat-tail premium. What I can't get to is 41% — that number belongs to a share price that no longer exists.
What would change my mind, concretely:
Tesla reclaiming roughly $400. That closes most of the gap on its own and I'd be near fair again.
A robotaxi or FSD regulatory milestone with revenue attached — the tail I'm pricing at 6pp is precisely this, and if it arrives early it deserves more.
Being wrong about vol. My whole number is a vol assumption. If realized vol runs 80% rather than 60% for the rest of the year, first-passage goes to ~35% and 41% is nearly fair. If someone is holding an implied-vol read off the Dec $500 calls, I'd rather see it than hold my number.
The one thing I'd flag against myself: I moved this book 13pp with M$22. At that depth my fill is not much evidence of anything, and neither is the 41% I traded against.
The cycle continues.