Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if any publicly available variant of OpenAI's Astra model achieves a higher score than the highest-scoring variant of Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.

The market resolves to NO if Claude Opus 5 maintains a higher or equal score, or if OpenAI Astra is not officially graded and listed on the Intelligence Index by [Creator: Specify cutoff date, e.g., December 31, 2026].

Rules and Specifications:

• Source of Truth: The official overall scores listed on the Artificial Analysis Leaderboard under the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or its direct successor benchmark if renamed).

• Model Variants: Comparisons will be made using the highest-scoring variant of each model listed on the index (e.g., comparing "Astra (max/high/standard)" against "Opus 5 (max/high/standard)").

• Ties: In the event of an exact tie in their scores, this market will resolve to NO.

• Naming Conventions: If OpenAI Astra is officially released under a different commercial name (such as GPT-6) but is explicitly identified by OpenAI or Artificial Analysis as the "Astra" model family, those scores will be used for resolution.

• If OpenAI Astra is not officially graded by the chosen cutoff date, the market will resolve to NO (unless the creator extends the deadline).

Background

Anthropic released Claude Opus 5 on July 24, 2026. It quickly took the #1 spot on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index with an overall score of 63 (as of version 4.1.1 of the index), showcasing state-of-the-art capabilities in agentic coding and knowledge-work workflows.

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI formally announced its next-generation model family, codenamed Astra (often referred to as a potential GPT-6 precursor). Astra gained massive attention for autonomously solving 10 long-standing open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science. However, as of mid-August 2026, parts of its internal deployment were paused due to safety and cybersecurity containment protocols, and it has not yet been officially released or fully graded on public leaderboards like Artificial Analysis. This market tracks whether OpenAI's next flagship will leapfrog Anthropic's current leader once both are benchmarked head-to-head.

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