Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if SpaceX plans and executes a booster catch attempt using the launch tower's "chopstick" arms (Mechazilla) during Starship Flight 15 (the 15th integrated flight test of the Starship/Super Heavy system, also known as IFT-15).

To resolve as YES:

• SpaceX's official mission profile prior to launch must plan for a return-to-launch-site booster catch, and the booster must launch and perform its return maneuver toward the launch pad/tower.

• This includes successful catches, crashes at the pad/tower, or mid-flight aborts/diversions to a water splashdown for safety reasons (where the catch was actively attempted but waived off during descent, similar to the flight profile of Starship Flight 6).

This market will resolve to NO if:

• SpaceX's official mission profile from the outset targets a water splashdown (e.g., in the Gulf of Mexico) with no intention of bringing the booster back to the pad/tower for a catch.

• Starship Flight 15 does not launch by December 31, 2027.

The primary source of truth will be the official SpaceX mission page, SpaceX's live stream, or official announcements from SpaceX/Elon Musk.

Background

Following the historic first booster catches during the early flight tests (such as Flight 5 in October 2024), SpaceX has consistently iterated on its hardware. As of late July 2026, Starship Flight 13 successfully completed its launch, with Booster 20 performing a soft splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico. Flight 14 is highly anticipated to involve the first-ever catch attempt of the Starship upper stage. Flight 15, expected to launch in late 2026 or 2027, marks a key step in SpaceX's push toward rapid reusability and higher launch cadences, with potential operations expanding to Cape Canaveral. This market determines whether the Flight 15 mission profile will include a return-to-launch-site catch attempt for the Super Heavy booster.

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