Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the first orbital or lunar launch of a Blue Origin "Blue Moon" lander (including the Mark 1 "Endurance" or Mark 2 HLS variants) is carried out by a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket.

This market resolves to NO if:

• The first launch of a Blue Moon lander is carried out by any other launch vehicle (such as Blue Origin's New Glenn, ULA's Vulcan Centaur, SLS, or Starship).

• The Blue Moon program is officially canceled by NASA or Blue Origin before any launch occurs.

• No Blue Moon lander has successfully launched by December 31, 2030.

The launch must successfully lift off and reach space (an altitude of at least 100 km). Verification of the launch vehicle and payload will be based on official announcements from Blue Origin, NASA, or reputable aerospace news outlets such as SpaceNews and Spaceflight Now.

Background

On May 28, 2026, Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket suffered a catastrophic explosion during a static fire test at Launch Complex 36 (LC-36) in Cape Canaveral, destroying the booster and heavily damaging the pad infrastructure.

Prior to this incident, Blue Origin was preparing to launch its uncrewed Mark 1 "Endurance" lunar lander on New Glenn for a demonstration flight to the lunar south pole as part of NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. Because LC-36 repairs and booster production could delay New Glenn for a substantial period, aerospace industry experts have debated whether Blue Origin might be forced to adapt the Blue Moon lander to fly on alternative vehicles—such as SpaceX's Falcon Heavy—to avoid severe delays to NASA's Artemis program.

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