On what rocket will Blue moon MK1-SN001 launch on?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the launch vehicle that carries Blue Origin's Blue Moon MK1-SN001 (also known as Endurance) on its maiden lunar landing attempt.

Official Sources: Resolution will be determined by official mission updates from Blue Origin, NASA, or reputable aerospace news outlets like SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, or Spaceflight Now.

Preconditions and Edge Cases:

If the MK1-SN001 mission is officially canceled, permanently scrapped, or the spacecraft is destroyed prior to an orbital launch attempt, this market will resolve as N/A.

If the MK1-SN001 spacecraft is launched but the launch vehicle fails to reach orbit, the market will still resolve to the rocket on which it was launched.

Background

The uncrewed Blue Moon Mark 1 (MK1-SN001) pathfinder cargo lander, named Endurance, was originally slated to launch on Blue Origin's own New Glenn rocket.

However, on May 28, 2026, a New Glenn first-stage booster suffered a catastrophic explosion during a static fire test at Launch Complex 36 (LC-36) in Cape Canaveral, destroying the vehicle and causing significant damage to the launch pad. While Blue Origin CEO Dave Limp has stated the company aims to rebuild and return New Glenn to flight before the end of 2026, the severe damage and potential impacts on NASA's Artemis program and the Moon Base 1 timeline have led to discussions regarding alternative launch arrangements.

Because the cryogenic lander requires orbital backfilling, integrating it with other launch vehicles presents a non-trivial engineering task.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, New Glenn, followed by Falcon Heavy and SLS are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Jul 29, 2026).